Applied Nate Silver – now what? – 1

Apparently I haven’t “hit bottom” on the rapid shedding of “water weight” I gained during the vacation. I had expected that would happen today but it doesn’t look like it did. Here’s the actual number values (total lost, lbs/lost-per-day):

 16.09 5.91 2.96 2.77 2.77 1.68

So while there is a decrease in today’s loss that is still a number that is too large to be explained by a “real” loss so I assume I’m just continued to eliminate the rapid gain I had during vacation. Furthermore these numbers really don’t offer much of a clue as to when this rapid loss will stop even though it seems unlikely it will continue much longer.

The graphical look (raw scale samples) doesn’t seem to predict it either:

You can see that today’s weight was actually below the “bottom” of the 4-day prediction and that the new “prediction” (5 days curve) goes both lower and later to “bottom out”.

So it will be at least one more day to see where this bottoms out and then how much “real” weight I gained (and thus have to lose to get back to where I was before vacation). I’m certainly happy to see these continuing big drops because that does mean it’s going to be a lot easier to get back on plan. BUT, it also means that once I achieve my goal during drastic diet/exercise that stabilizing is going to involve getting back a lot of this “water weight” and that is a huge amount.

Let’s look at this relative to my plan (past weight loss history):

The green triangles are my previous weekly weights (official “weigh-ins”) and I’ve sprinkled the last six days (blue markers are sample, red square marker is average for the day) on the graph in roughly corresponding weights. IOW, you can see the rapid loss of the “water weight”, since returning, is equivalent to about 7 weeks on my weight loss plan (the first loss was equivalent to 5 weeks on the plan, or a huge shift).

None of this analysis does much for prediction, but I’ll make “intuitive” prediction that I’ll bottom out tomorrow at somewhere near 198.0, thus leaving me with about a 5lbs “real” gain (actually closer to 7lbs, since I think I’ve also had about a 2lb “real” loss this week, in addition to the water weight loss). So maybe that’s not bad, two more weeks at normal loss rate before I’m back to plan, or a total of a five week “distraction” in my plan/