Applied Nate Silver – now what? – 2

Well, I’ve definitely “hit bottom” on shedding the water weight I gained during vacation, a total of 15.3lbs gone in a week. Yesterday I made some great bread and a great vegetable soup (closer to a stew since I overdid the amount of farro) and so I overate yesterday and thus learning that any amount of “normal” eating (just amount my sedentary calorie requirements) re-adds some of that “water” (what I’m now calling my “wet weight”):


I believe, had I not “pigged out” (just normal eating at maintenance level) I would have been around 198.0 today so the 1.47lb gain since yesterday is not “real”. My total for the week (intake versus burn) was good enough I probably would have had my usual 2.3lb/week loss, if I weren’t still adjusting from the vacation anomaly. So my conclusion is that each day of “normal” eating would probably add 1.5lbs, eventually back up by 15lbs. IOW, my steady-state weight now is more around 210lbs than the 199. So I’ll have to get down to a dry-weight of around 170 to hit my planned maintenance level of 185 (with routine “normal” eating). I’m not sure why my body wants to add 15lbs of “water” but it does, so without extreme fasting my dry weight is not sustainable.

Putting this is longer-term context here’s my two-month history:


The green markers are my pre-vacation progress. Week 25 was on the road so I don’t have a value. The blue markers are the raw scale values (daily) and the red markers are the average for that day. IOW, after vacation and “bottoming out” after vacation, I’ve lost six weeks of progress that will take me at least three weeks to reverse so I can resume my plan. However, I expect to do camping trip in that timeframe which will produce another uptick, so I’m probably looking at end of May before back on plan.

This is a long time to try to retain my resolve and dedication and it’s still not over. In fact, it will probably be about a year from when I started before I achieve my final goal and then reset my focus to maintenance. Ugh! It’s hard to contemplate another five months of extreme dieting and exercise before I can begin to level out.

So hopefully this week I can try the 5:2 Fast Diet. Now ordinarily, Dear Reader, you know I’ve been very skeptical and critical of “fad” diets, unsupported by basic science. I actually viewed a TV program, while on vacation, of Michael Mosley and his idea. The TV show and other information clearly indicates his plan is also not supported by science, so in reality it’s just as much a fad as any of the others (like Bittman’s fanaticism (also unscientific, or at least misinterpreting science) about the Mediterranean diet). So despite having no science to justify any plan (just lots of opinion and fanaticism) the Fast Diet may fit me better. Now let’s see if I can actually do 600 calorie/day fasts (lower than my lowest consumption in past 27 weeks). It will be hard but it’s worth a try. As I’m now beginning to understand this wet/dry weight issue for my body I know the “fast” will “work” but will also be a statistical illusion, so the real issue is what happens longer-term and that is where my Nate Silver approach will help me out.

So (maybe?) I’ll be starting a new chapter.


About dmill96

old fat (but now getting trim and fit) guy, who used to create software in Silicon Valley (almost before it was called that), who used to go backpacking and bicycling and cross-country skiing and now geodashes, drives AWD in Wyoming, takes pictures, and writes long blog posts and does xizquvjyk.
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